House Passes - Senate Blocked

Well the House passed its resolution 246-182 (including 17 Republican yes votes), but the Republicans in the Senate once again held up having the debate, but by a narrower margin then they had the last time they tried to prevent debate, 56-34. The political shifting is starting and we need to keep up pressure on all fronts, political and media. This is now clearly a Republican war and the public do not want it.

Now, the Republican push back is continuing, but it is getting ever weaker. Yes the media are still reporting things like this, portraying the current vote as Democratic weakness. The public is not longer buying it, however. Some in the media have been trying to portray the surge as a success because there had been a week of somewhat less violence in Baghdad. That, however, has sadly come to an end, see also here. Look, conditions in Iraq are bad for us strategically and tactically. The surge is not improving the situation. This has long since been a ill-conceived operation that has been badly implemented and from which we need to withdraw. At this point we are fighting for nothing but an effort to save the reputation of George Bush and his fellow neocons.

I should point out something on the fighting in Iraq and how well the surge is going, essentially a heads up on Republican spin for the coming month of March. Every year since the invasion, for reasons that I don't know, the US and coalition casualty rate has dropped, significantly in March. As I say, I don't know why, but it is very consistent. Actually, to be completely accurate the low month in 2004 was February, in 2005 and 2006 it was March. The decrease was around 50% which is a much larger month-to-month swing than occurs at any other time. If it happens again, expect the Republicans to trumpet it as "proof" that the surge is working. Be prepared to point out that this is no different that occurs in any other year at this time. Similarly, if the casualty rate does not decline, we can be quite sure that the surge is being an expensive failure.

Pelosi on the House Resolution

Go here to read Nancy Pelosi's remarks on the upcoming vote on the House Resolution in opposition to George Bush's surge.

Which Resolution?

I think John in DC has a good proposal with regards to Senate vote on the Iraq War. Of course, his proposal is rather like what I suggest here, so I suppose I should approve. What John suggests is that Sen. Harry Reid put forth a resolution offering up George Bush's surge proposal. No tricks in the language, just have the Senate vote up or down on what it is George Bush is proposing to do. Check John's post over at America Blog for the details. Rather than try and get a debate on whether or not the Senate opposes George Bush's surge, simply get a vote on whether or not the Senate supports the surge. The Democrats will, clearly, not vote in support, but what do Republicans do? Do they vote to support in opposition to the wishes of the majority of their constituents? Do they oppose the surge and leave open the question of why then are they not supporting efforts to end it? Do they oppose an opportunity to support the President? I certainly think that the plan has merit

Sub 30

Poll: Bush Approval Rating At New Low, On Eve Of State Of Union, President's Approval Rating Falls To 28%, A New Low - CBS News
Look, for reality based folks, and for our forces in Iraq, Bush's approval has been a slow tortuous decline. Unfortunately, that is the way these things go. People just do not immediately give up on something they have invested in. But as we are seeing now, his approval will only decline. Likewise, as I've written earlier, it will take some time for opposition in the House and Senate to grow until Bush can be made irrelevant. It will happen, and it will happen this year, I believe. Probably before the summer is out. Also note here how the congressional dynamic is changing already. Sen. John Warner is going to introduce a resolution in opposition to escalation. Warner is a very influential Senator on the Republican side. His loss to the opposition will seriously change the willingness of other Republicans to support the President. Recall that for anything to be done, we will eventually need some 16 or 17 Republican Senators to support the opposition.

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Update [9:40 PM 01/22/2007] And look at this from the AP. More on Warner's defection, and Sen. Susan Collins and Sen. Norm Coleman have joined the fun. The number of defecting Republicans in the Senate is up to five, and Warner counts for a lot.